13 Reasons Dan Coats likely penned the anonymous New York Times Op-Ed

(OR: how subject expertise sleuthing can sometimes be better than strict text analysis)

A longer version is in the works but for now:

1. Dan Coats is one of two of the plausible “senior official[s] in the Trump administration” to attend McCain’s funeral — the references to McCain’s legacy at the end of the piece note his admiration for the farewell address.
2. Coats was personally close with McCain. When he was appointed to his role as Director of National Intelligence, McCain said, “”It’ll be great, he’s one of my favorite people,” McCain also said, “I also like see these old geezers given another chance."
3. Which is the next point. As an “old geezer” or “adult in the room” Coats feels a responsibility to the republic in a way that younger, or those who come from non-politics backgrounds do not necessarily share.
4. Coats and McCain shared many overlapping policy views and have worked together for a long time. In 1996 they co-sponsored the ill-fated Presidential line-item veto. More recently they have worked together to strengthen the U.S. military (both are/were veterans), and both shared similar views on cybersecurity generally and Russia specifically. McCain, Coats and others worked to pass cybersecurity legislation in 2012 via the Strengthening and Enhancing Cybersecurity by Using Research, Education, Information, and Technology Act (SECURE IT).
5. When asked directly by Trump to “publicly deny the existence of any evidence of collusion during the 2016 election.” Coats wouldn’t do it — he has resisted Trump before.
6. Two bright spots are listed — Tax reform and deregulation. In the last official e-newsletter Dan Coats sent to constituents his priorities were:

“First, we can reform our broken tax code. America has the highest combined corporate tax rate in the developed world at 39 percent, which puts American businesses at a disadvantage in our global marketplace. Small business owners face mind-numbing complexity and rates as high as 44.3 percent due to Obama tax increases. Reducing effective tax rates will help American companies retain their competitive edge in the face of globalization so they can expand and create new jobs.

Second, policymakers and the administration must streamline and reduce burdensome regulations that are holding our economy back. The Obama Administration’s flood of red tape wastes time and resources, stifles jobs and new business startups, and dampens economic growth. The Competitive Enterprise Institute estimates that the cost of these regulations is about $1.9 trillion per year. That’s about $15,000 for each American household. Smarter regulations would allow new businesses to start, existing businesses to hire, and family incomes to grow.”

-Sep 30, 2016

Coats publicly wanted and called for tax reform when he was in the Senate in 2015.

7. While Coats doesn’t use #lodestar in official communications, he does use the synonym “guidepost” as in his 4/24/15 message: “The constitutional guideposts that govern our republic should be reaffirmed by an independent attorney general.”

8. Lodestar and the theory of Pence was a good connection, but it focuses on the wrong Hoosier. Both Pence and Coats are from Indiana, they talk and have a history. While it’s a rare word, and not used much in official communications (1/100,000 e-newsletters) Coats picked it up from Pence…probably unintentionally.

9. In the Op-Ed the author notes the greatest concern about Trump and his “amorality”. This in consistent with Coats’ world view. In 2014 re: immigration practices, Coats said “As unaccompanied minors await their day in court, providing adequate housing and care is the appropriate and compassionate response…the US has a moral responsibility” and he often appeals to moral obligations and standing as a justification for action

10. The author appeals to a higher duty in the op-ed, just like Coats does in his constituent communications, “I am proud to say that I am a U.S. Army veteran, but I think all of us, every American, whether Republican or Democrat, veteran or not, would agree that we have a duty.”

11. The polite, and some may say cowardly (not my choice) style is how Coats communicates. Even when harshly criticizing Obama (who most of his co-partisans and a good deal of his constituents loathed) Coats maintained a high level of civility in his written word.

12. On Trump’s dilemma in the op-ed, the author writes “which he does not fully grasp.” On 11/19/15 when writing about Obama and ISIS Coats wrote, “President Obama has shown that he doesn’t grasp the realities of what we are facing.”

13. In the Op-Ed, the author writes “It’s not just that the special counsel looms large.” This seems like normal enough phrasing, but in terms of use on Congressional communications — it’s another pointer to Coats. In the DCinbox database there are 226 messages from Coats. 14 use the term “looming” and 1 uses “loom”. In the whole database of 101,804 e-newsletters, “looming” is used 1069 times, and “loom” just 67 times. That is of all the e-newsletters only 1% use “looming” but 6% of Coats’ do.